The EU Moved First
On 1 July the European Union eliminated the €150 de minimis exemption for small parcels. Every item category in a package shipped directly from a non-EU seller to an EU consumer now carries a €3 fixed duty.
The Scale
- In 2025, 5.8 billion small parcels entered the EU, up 26% year on year.
- 91% of those originated in China.
- Over 95% of Temu and SHEIN listings fall under the €150 threshold.
- Average volume runs at roughly 180 parcels per second.
At €3 per item category, a typical multi-item order that once passed duty-free now carries €6–12 in tariff cost. And this is only phase one. In November 2026 a €2 per-parcel handling fee is added. By 2028 the flat fee disappears entirely, replaced by full ad-valorem customs duties on every item down to the first euro — a cost increase of 15–20% for the fast-fashion direct-ship model.
The US Timeline
Across the Atlantic, Section 122's 10% blanket tariff was set to expire on 24 July, with the transition to Section 301 ladder tariffs meaning Chinese goods face rates of up to 12.5%. The US is simultaneously closing its own de minimis provision, with CBP proposing a flat fee of $80–200 per inbound parcel.
The strategic implication is straightforward: direct-to-consumer parcel models built on duty exemptions lose their cost advantage, and bulk import with local fulfilment becomes relatively more attractive. That is a supply-chain design decision, not a freight decision.
